De usynlige nettverkene som driver den globale økonomien – De 5 svake leddene

Kabler, rørledninger, veier, sjøsund, flyruter og satellitter danner det skjøre nettverket som den globale økonomien er bygget på. Dette er usynlige nettverk av enorm betydning for den globale forsyningskjeden og det moderne livet, som imidlertid bare huskes når en krig som den i Ukraina eller Israel truer et av disse strategiske punktene. Deutsche Bank-studien kaster lys over de fem svake leddene i den globale økonomien. Det vil si infrastrukturen som ikke kan erstattes av et alternativ og derfor kan blokkere den globale forsyningskjeden.

There are some vulnerabilities in the global economy that are more or less known to everyone, such as Taiwan's semiconductor factories, global financial centers and the 0.5% of subway stations in London and Paris that could block the half network.

But there are also the invisible but very important networks, as was shown by the damage done to an undersea gas pipeline and telecommunications cable between Finland and Estonia on October 10, reminiscent of the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline a year ago. In 2010, the eruption of a volcano in Iceland "grounded" one second of Europe's air traffic for 8 days, notes Deutsche Bank.

Både Ukraina og Israel ligger i nærheten av slike viktige punkter for den globale økonomien.

1. Kabler og ledere

– Datakabler: Up to 99% of the world's digital communications as well as 10 trillion financial transactions. dollars, pass through fiber optic cables located on the sea floor. There are approximately 550 active and planned cables, spanning 1.4 million kilometres. Many are barely thicker than a watering can, explains Deutsche Bank. These cables are vulnerable to espionage and sabotage and to accidental damage.

– Undersjøiske strømkabler: Kraftforbindelser lar land kjøpe billigere vind- eller solkraft fra naboene med gunstigere vær, øker forsyningssikkerheten og bedre styring av etterspørselen. Men de kan bli ødelagt ved sabotasje eller ulykke.

– Naturgassrørledninger: Europa er avhengig av rørledninger for de fleste av sine naturgassforsyninger. I 2020 importerte den nesten 40% av sin naturgass fra Russland, og siden den gang har den vært avhengig av rørledninger fra Norge og importert LNG. Som Nord Stream-eksplosjonene viste, er disse rørledningene sårbare for sabotasje.

– Oljerørledninger: Most of the world's oil pipelines are located in Europe and Asia and start from Russia. A typical oil pipeline is about 50 centimeters in diameter and can carry over 1 million liters (or 6.300 barrels per hour). By comparison, a barrel can carry less than 200 barrels at a time. Pipelines are made of steel and, where possible, are buried in the ground. Like natural gas pipelines, they are vulnerable to damage, earthquakes and sabotage.

2. Veier, jernbaner og elver

Some railways and roads in far-flung places carry a disproportionately large share of supplies critical to the global economy, with no alternatives. A vast area in the Congo and Zambia, for example, is Africa's largest producer of copper and accounts for two-thirds of the world's cobalt production. But there are only four roads, all bad and congested, to transport these raw materials from the mines to ports in Namibia, South Africa, Mozambique and Tanzania. Something similar is happening with Brazil's soy, which is the world's No. 1 exporter. In the last two years, drought has hit rivers that are vital waterways, showing how vulnerable these transports are.

3. Sjøsund

Along with the Cape of Good Hope, there are 8 important "straits" for sea transport. As Deutsche Bank explains, these are the five "keys that unlocked the world" for the British Empire, if the Straits of Dover are removed and the Panama Canal, the Turkish Straits, the Straits of Bab el Madeb and the Straits of Hormuz are added . In oil, for example, more than 60% of supply is transported by sea, with the Straits of Hormuz being the most important point for the market, since a fifth of the world's consumption (and a third of LNG) passes through it. At its narrowest point, the Straits of Hormuz are only 33 kilometers wide.

Disse sundene er sårbare for blokader, skipskollisjoner eller grunnstøting, pirater, terrorangrep, kriger og ulykker som oljesøl.

4. Flystriper

Air transport depends on an invisible network of corridors that can be disrupted by weather, wars or unusual events, such as when Spain's airspace was closed last November to allow a Chinese missile to enter Earth's atmosphere. Strikes by air traffic controllers have caused major transport problems in Europe this year, while the biggest post-war air traffic blockade occurred in 2010, when the volcano in Iceland erupted.

5. Satellitter

The world is very dependent on the US Global Positioning System (GPS). This uses approximately 30 Earth-orbiting Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) satellites, which send signals to over 4 billion users worldwide. But these signals are weak and prone to interference, and it has been estimated that if GPS is "cut", the cost will exceed $1 billion a day, just for the US.

(KILDE: https://www.moneyreview.gr/business-and-finance/125480/deutsche-bank-ta-aorata-diktya-poy-kinoyn-tin-pagkosmia-oikonomia-oi-5-adynamoi-krikoi/)