世界経済を動かす目に見えないネットワーク – 5つの弱点

ケーブル、パイプライン、道路、海峡、空路、衛星は、世界経済を構築する脆弱なネットワークを形成しています。これらは、世界のサプライチェーンと現代生活にとって非常に重要な目に見えないネットワークですが、ウクライナやイスラエルのような戦争がこれらの戦略的拠点の1つを脅かしたときにのみ思い出されます。ドイツ銀行の調査は、世界経済の5つの弱点を明らかにしています。つまり、インフラストラクチャは代替手段に置き換えることができないため、グローバルなサプライチェーンをブロックする可能性があります。

There are some vulnerabilities in the global economy that are more or less known to everyone, such as Taiwan's semiconductor factories, global financial centers and the 0.5% of subway stations in London and Paris that could block the half network.

But there are also the invisible but very important networks, as was shown by the damage done to an undersea gas pipeline and telecommunications cable between Finland and Estonia on October 10, reminiscent of the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline a year ago. In 2010, the eruption of a volcano in Iceland "grounded" one second of Europe's air traffic for 8 days, notes Deutsche Bank.

ウクライナもイスラエルも世界経済にとってこのような重要な地点の近くに位置している。

1. ケーブルと導体

– データケーブル: Up to 99% of the world's digital communications as well as 10 trillion financial transactions. dollars, pass through fiber optic cables located on the sea floor. There are approximately 550 active and planned cables, spanning 1.4 million kilometres. Many are barely thicker than a watering can, explains Deutsche Bank. These cables are vulnerable to espionage and sabotage and to accidental damage.

– 海底電力ケーブル: 電力連系により、各国は天候に恵まれた隣国からより安価な風力発電や太陽光発電を購入できるようになり、供給の安全性が高まり、需要の管理が改善されます。ただし、妨害行為や事故によって破壊される可能性があります。

– 天然ガスパイプライン: ヨーロッパは天然ガス供給のほとんどをパイプラインに依存しています。 2020年にはロシアから天然ガス約40%を輸入したが、それ以降はノルウェーからのパイプラインと輸入LNGに頼らざるを得なくなった。ノルド・ストリームの爆発が示したように、これらのパイプラインは妨害行為に対して脆弱です。

– 石油パイプライン: Most of the world's oil pipelines are located in Europe and Asia and start from Russia. A typical oil pipeline is about 50 centimeters in diameter and can carry over 1 million liters (or 6.300 barrels per hour). By comparison, a barrel can carry less than 200 barrels at a time. Pipelines are made of steel and, where possible, are buried in the ground. Like natural gas pipelines, they are vulnerable to damage, earthquakes and sabotage.

2. 道路、鉄道、河川

Some railways and roads in far-flung places carry a disproportionately large share of supplies critical to the global economy, with no alternatives. A vast area in the Congo and Zambia, for example, is Africa's largest producer of copper and accounts for two-thirds of the world's cobalt production. But there are only four roads, all bad and congested, to transport these raw materials from the mines to ports in Namibia, South Africa, Mozambique and Tanzania. Something similar is happening with Brazil's soy, which is the world's No. 1 exporter. In the last two years, drought has hit rivers that are vital waterways, showing how vulnerable these transports are.

3. 海峡

Along with the Cape of Good Hope, there are 8 important "straits" for sea transport. As Deutsche Bank explains, these are the five "keys that unlocked the world" for the British Empire, if the Straits of Dover are removed and the Panama Canal, the Turkish Straits, the Straits of Bab el Madeb and the Straits of Hormuz are added . In oil, for example, more than 60% of supply is transported by sea, with the Straits of Hormuz being the most important point for the market, since a fifth of the world's consumption (and a third of LNG) passes through it. At its narrowest point, the Straits of Hormuz are only 33 kilometers wide.

これらの海峡は、封鎖、船舶の衝突や座礁、海賊、テロ攻撃、戦争、石油流出などの事故に対して脆弱です。

4. 滑走路

Air transport depends on an invisible network of corridors that can be disrupted by weather, wars or unusual events, such as when Spain's airspace was closed last November to allow a Chinese missile to enter Earth's atmosphere. Strikes by air traffic controllers have caused major transport problems in Europe this year, while the biggest post-war air traffic blockade occurred in 2010, when the volcano in Iceland erupted.

5. 衛星

The world is very dependent on the US Global Positioning System (GPS). This uses approximately 30 Earth-orbiting Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) satellites, which send signals to over 4 billion users worldwide. But these signals are weak and prone to interference, and it has been estimated that if GPS is "cut", the cost will exceed $1 billion a day, just for the US.

(出典: https://www.moneyreview.gr/business-and-finance/125480/deutsche-bank-ta-aorata-diktya-poy-kinoyn-tin-pagkosmia-oikonomia-oi-5-adynamoi-krikoi/)