推動全球經濟的隱形網絡－5個弱點

電纜、管道、道路、海峽、航線和衛星構成了全球經濟賴以建立的脆弱網路。這些都是對全球供應鏈和現代生活極其重要的無形網絡，然而，只有當像烏克蘭或以色列這樣的戰爭威脅到這些戰略要點之一時，人們才會記住這些網絡。德意志銀行的研究揭示了全球經濟的五個弱點。也就是說，基礎設施無法被某種替代品取代，因此可能會阻塞全球供應鏈。

There are some vulnerabilities in the global economy that are more or less known to everyone, such as Taiwan's semiconductor factories, global financial centers and the 0.5% of subway stations in London and Paris that could block the half network.

But there are also the invisible but very important networks, as was shown by the damage done to an undersea gas pipeline and telecommunications cable between Finland and Estonia on October 10, reminiscent of the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline a year ago. In 2010, the eruption of a volcano in Iceland "grounded" one second of Europe's air traffic for 8 days, notes Deutsche Bank.

烏克蘭和以色列都位於全球經濟的重要節點附近。

1. 電纜和導體

– 數據線： Up to 99% of the world's digital communications as well as 10 trillion financial transactions. dollars, pass through fiber optic cables located on the sea floor. There are approximately 550 active and planned cables, spanning 1.4 million kilometres. Many are barely thicker than a watering can, explains Deutsche Bank. These cables are vulnerable to espionage and sabotage and to accidental damage.

– 海底電力電纜： 電力互連使各國能夠從氣候較有利的鄰國購買更便宜的風能或太陽能，提高供應安全性並更好地管理需求。但是，它們可能會因破壞或意外而被摧毀。

– 天然氣管道： 歐洲的大部分天然氣供應都依賴管道。 2020年，該公司從俄羅斯進口了近401TP3噸天然氣，此後，該公司不得不依賴來自挪威的管道和進口液化天然氣。正如北溪爆炸所表明的那樣，這些管道很容易受到破壞。

– 石油管道： Most of the world's oil pipelines are located in Europe and Asia and start from Russia. A typical oil pipeline is about 50 centimeters in diameter and can carry over 1 million liters (or 6.300 barrels per hour). By comparison, a barrel can carry less than 200 barrels at a time. Pipelines are made of steel and, where possible, are buried in the ground. Like natural gas pipelines, they are vulnerable to damage, earthquakes and sabotage.

2. 公路、鐵路和河流

Some railways and roads in far-flung places carry a disproportionately large share of supplies critical to the global economy, with no alternatives. A vast area in the Congo and Zambia, for example, is Africa's largest producer of copper and accounts for two-thirds of the world's cobalt production. But there are only four roads, all bad and congested, to transport these raw materials from the mines to ports in Namibia, South Africa, Mozambique and Tanzania. Something similar is happening with Brazil's soy, which is the world's No. 1 exporter. In the last two years, drought has hit rivers that are vital waterways, showing how vulnerable these transports are.

3. 海峽

Along with the Cape of Good Hope, there are 8 important "straits" for sea transport. As Deutsche Bank explains, these are the five "keys that unlocked the world" for the British Empire, if the Straits of Dover are removed and the Panama Canal, the Turkish Straits, the Straits of Bab el Madeb and the Straits of Hormuz are added . In oil, for example, more than 60% of supply is transported by sea, with the Straits of Hormuz being the most important point for the market, since a fifth of the world's consumption (and a third of LNG) passes through it. At its narrowest point, the Straits of Hormuz are only 33 kilometers wide.

這些海峽很容易遭受封鎖、船舶碰撞或擱淺、海盜、恐怖攻擊、戰爭和漏油等事故的影響。

4. 簡易機場

Air transport depends on an invisible network of corridors that can be disrupted by weather, wars or unusual events, such as when Spain's airspace was closed last November to allow a Chinese missile to enter Earth's atmosphere. Strikes by air traffic controllers have caused major transport problems in Europe this year, while the biggest post-war air traffic blockade occurred in 2010, when the volcano in Iceland erupted.

5. 衛星

The world is very dependent on the US Global Positioning System (GPS). This uses approximately 30 Earth-orbiting Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) satellites, which send signals to over 4 billion users worldwide. But these signals are weak and prone to interference, and it has been estimated that if GPS is "cut", the cost will exceed $1 billion a day, just for the US.

（資料來源：https://www.moneyreview.gr/business-and-finance/125480/deutsche-bank-ta-aorata-diktya-poy-kinoyn-tin-pagkosmia-oikonomia-oi-5-adynamoi-krikoi/）